Weather Forecast: Heavy Rain & Gusty Winds On The Way
Redding, Chcio, Red Bluff
By Mike Krueger
The mild and dry weather we have been experiencing for the last week will soon come to an end as the first storm is expected to arrive Wednesday morning with heavy rain and gusty winds. The valley is expected to pick up a half of an inch to an inch of rain on Wednesday alone with south winds at 15 to 30 mph and gusts over 40 mph. The strong winds have prompted the National Weather Service to issue a Wind Advisory for the Sacramento Valley from 6 am until 4pm Wednesday.
The next storm arrives Thursday afternoon into the evening hours dropping yet more heavy rain over the Northstate. This is also when the tap into sub-tropical moisture comes into play, A.K.A “Coconut Connection” or “Pineapple Express.” This will keep the moisture streaming into the Northstate giving us long periods of steady rain lasting at least through Saturday if not longer. We should see signs of relief by Sunday or Monday when the sub-tropical tap is cut off.
Although we can’t give exact amounts of just how much rain we will see as it all will depend not only on where you are but also where the heaviest rain will be focused and that focus can change at a moment’s notice. That all being said, the 2 to 4.5 inches of rain we saw with the last series of storms will be light rain in comparison. Some of the long range forecast models are giving the valley between 4 and 8 inches of rain through the weekend with 10+ inches in some of the mountain locations. The latest forecast models are focusing a lot of the storm’s energy over eastern Butte and Plumas County where we could see the most rain and the highest potential for flooding. However, with strong south winds the south facing slopes could be dealing with more rainfall than estimated.
As you can clearly see, it gets very complicated with all of the different micro-climates so the bottom line is some people will be dealing with strong winds and heavy rain without flooding or power outages. Others will be dealing with flooding and the possibility of downed power lines. So our suggestion is to make sure you are prepared for the worst case scenario.
Snow levels during this event should be above 5000 or 6000 feet with Winter Weather Advisories in the mountains above 6000 feet.
This amount of rain will give us the potential for flooding which is why the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for the Sacramento Valley and surrounding foothills from Thursday through Saturday. The areas under the biggest threat will be people near creeks and streams. There will also be localized street flooding creating hazards on the roads and highways.
Be sure to keep checking back for the latest updates as the first storm approaches.