Not for today, but Monday and Tuesday definitely.

Sunny skies remain for today, but clouds will harken a major change on the way.That change in the weather is coming in the form of two systems which will work together to break down the ridge overhead.  The first one will move through Monday night into Tuesday morning and won’t bring more than some clouds for the valley a few sprinkles to the mountains.  That system punches a hole through our ridge.  The second on is the really important one because it doesn’t have to waste any energy plowing through the giant high pressure area over top of the west coast.  That means it will be able to focus its energy more on rainfall than on moving things out of the way. 

That’s good news for northern California because it means we could see upwards of 1.5 inches of rain in the valley.  Some models area even hinting at the possibility of 2 inch totals for some favored areas in the foothills and over 3 inches in the mountains.  This is great news for our drought.  Although it won’t eliminate it, it will put a decent dent in our rainfall deficit which is standing near 15.5” since July 1st 2013.  This rain will also the first rainfall totaling more than 1/10th of an inch since December 6th and the first measurable rain since January 11th.  The last time we got more than 1 inch of rain from a storm was way back on November 20th when a 3 day storm dropped 1.72” of rain on Redding.  That was over 60 days ago, and will be nearly 70 by the time this storm makes it here.

Exactly where and when the rain will fall is still in question as the models are still fighting over where exactly the front will line up and when it will get here.  The GFS is more progressive and actually pushes the rain farther south making it more of a High Sierra/Tahoe storm than an all-inclusive northern California event.  The Euro brings in much more moisture and keeps the main focus of the precipitation farther north.  They are also arguing over timing, as the GFS moves our front in closer to 4pm on Wednesday and the Euro is quicker with the precip, starting the rain overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  We’ll be sure to keep an eye on things as they develop.

For up to the minute weather info follow me on Twitter @ColdFrontCarlo and to get in on the conversation “Like” me on Facebook: Meteorologist Carlo Falco.

And be sure to tune in tonight for your full forecast at 5:30, 6:30 and 11, on the KRCR Channel 7 News.  And 10 on the KRCR Channel 7 News on Fox20.